融入全球价值链有利于实现贸易隐含碳减排吗？^[1]

陶长琪 徐志琴^[2]

摘要：全球价值链分工为国际碳减排带来了机遇和挑战，当前文献大多集中于全球价值链分工地位和隐含碳排放的测度问题，尚未对二者的影响机制进行研究。本文运用1995～2011年39个国家的数据，分别构建动态面板模型和面板门槛模型实证分析融入全球价值链对进出口隐含碳排放的直接影响，以及通过规模、结构、技术和环境规制四条传导路径对出口隐含碳排放的间接影响。结果表明，全球价值链分工地位和参与度对进出口隐含碳排放强度的作用方向截然相反，前者的负向作用明显。此外，融入全球价值链对出口隐含碳排放的间接效应均存在双重门槛。随着全球价值链分工地位的提高，规模效应的促进作用越来越小，结构、技术和环境规制效应的减排作用也逐渐显现。据此，建议一国鼓励服务业积极参与全球价值链分工，实现“制造”向“智造”升级，进而通过全球价值链嵌入有效实现贸易隐含碳减排。

关键词：全球价值链 贸易隐含碳排放 碳减排

中图分类号：F113.3 文献标识码：A

Is Integrating Global Value Chains Conducive to Achieving CO₂ Mitigation in Foreign Trade？

Tao Changqi Xu Zhiqin

Abstract：GVC brings opportunities and challenges for carbon emission reduction.But the existing studies mostly focus on the measurement of GVC's position and the embodied carbon emissions，and lack of analysis of the impact mechanism between them.By using 39 countries panel data from 1995-2011，this paper establishes the dynamic panel model and threshold model to analyze the direct effect of integrating GVC on the embodied carbon emissions，and the indirect effect on the embodied carbon emissions in export through the scale，structure，technology and environmental regulation.The results show that，the GVC's position can reduce the embodied carbon emissions，but the GVC's participation not，and the negative effects of the former are obvious.Moreover，there is a double threshold for integrating the global value chain to the indirect effects of export embodied carbon emissions.With the increase of GVC's position，the scale effect is becoming smaller and smaller，and the effect of CO₂ mitigation of structure，technology and environmental regulation is also gradually emerging.Accordingly，it is suggested that a country should encourage the service sector to take an active part in GVC and realize the upgrading of “manufacturing” to “wisdom making”，and then to effectively achieve trade implied carbon emission reduction through embedding global value chains.

Keywords：GVC Embodied Carbon Emissions in Foreign Trade CO₂ Mitigation